Managing risks in the global economy

管理全球经济风险

Despite some setbacks in early 2014, the recovery is under way in high-income economies and is expected to support growth in developing countries. However, many developing countries are beginning to encounter capacity limits to economic activity. The growth rates needed to achieve the World Bank’s twin goals would require reinvigorated structural reforms tailored to each developing country’s circumstances.

尽管2014年初出现放缓，目前，高收入经济体正处于复苏进程之中，并有望支持发展中国家的经济增长。但是，很多发展中国家的经济增长能力遇到了上限。实现世行两大目标所需要的经济增长速度需要发展中国家根据各自国情重启结构性改革。

Growth in developing countries is expected to remain flat at 4.8 percent in 2014. One-off factors (such as the exceptionally cold winter in the United States and the tensions in Ukraine) depressed growth in many countries in early 2014 but are expected to subside. In 2015 and 2016, growth is expected to pick up to about 5.5 percent, broadly in line with its average over the precrisis decade.

2014年，发展中国家的经济增长率预计将维持在4.8%。一次性因素，譬如美 国异常寒冷的冬季和乌克兰紧张局势，在2014年初影响了许多国家的经济增长，但 预计将逐渐消退。2015年和2016年，经济增长率预计将上升到5.5%，基本上与危机 前10年的平均水平相一致。

Regional prospects vary. East Asia and Pacific continue to exhibit the strongest growth, though it is expected to remain flat in 2014 at about 7 percent as China rebalances growth toward a more sustainable path. Buoyed by strengthening economies in high-income countries, growth in South Asia is expected to be 5.3 percent in 2014 and should rise further in 2015 and 2016 to around 6 percent, partly as a result of policy reforms. Investments in the resources sector, public infrastructure, and agriculture have helped to sustain growth in Sub-Saharan Africa at 4.7 percent and are expected to push growth above 5 percent in 2015–16. A divergent recovery is under way in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The weak outlook in key trading partners (in particular, the Russian Federation) is expected to slow growth in Central Asia, while developing Europe will benefit from the gradual recovery under way in the Euro Area. As a result, growth in developing countries in Europe and Central Asia is expected to slow to 2.4 percent in 2014 before strengthening to about 4.0 percent in 2016. Weak growth in the United States in early 2014 dampened growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, but the recovery in high-income countries and steady commodity prices are expected to strengthen growth to 3.5 percent in 2016. Social and political strife continue to hinder activity in much of the Middle East and North Africa, where growth is expected to pick up to 1.9 percent in 2014 (following stagnation in 2013) and rise to 3.5 percent by 2016.

不同地区的情况差异较大。东亚和太平洋地区继续保持强劲增长，尽管由于 中国实施经济增长再平衡，迈向更可持续的发展道路，其2014年的表现预计将较为平和，继续维持在7%的水平。受高收入国家经济恢复提振，南亚2014年经济增长 预期为5.3%，2015年和2016年应该进一步提高到6%左右，部分原因在于采取了一 些政策改革。对资源行业、公共基础设施和农业的投资拉动了撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲 的经济增长。预计2014年，该地区的经济增长率将维持在4.7%的水平，2015～2016 年将上升到超过5%。东欧和中亚将出现两种不同的复苏景象。主要贸易伙伴，尤其 是俄罗斯联邦的疲软前景，预计将放缓中亚的经济增长，而发展中欧洲地区将受益 于欧元区的逐步复苏。因此，预计2014年欧洲和中亚的发展中国家的经济增长率将 放缓到2.4%，2016年将回升至4.0%。2014年初，美国经济增长疲软影响了拉丁美 洲和加勒比地区的经济增长，但是高收入国家的复苏和稳定的大宗商品价格预计将 拉动该地区的经济增长，2016年达到3.5%。社会和政治冲突继续影响中东和北非的 经济活动。预计2014年，该地区的经济增长将在2013年的萧条后，有所好转，增长到 1.9%，2016年增长至3.5%。

Short-term risks to the overall outlook have receded. Challenges and risks in highincome countries are increasingly of a medium-term nature, including those related to fiscal sustainability, exits from unconventional monetary policy, a prolonged period of low inflation or deflation risks in the Euro Area, and the need for structural reforms to boost productivity growth. Among developing countries, short-term risks have also become less pressing. This is partly because earlier downside risks over the past year did not generate large upheavals, and partly because the recent economic adjustments have reduced vulnerabilities. In several countries, adjustments in exchange rates, interest rate hikes, and other policy measures since the summer of 2013 have narrowed current account deficits and slowed credit growth.

整体经济前景中的短期风险已经逐渐消退。高收入国家的挑战和风险越来越表 现为中期问题，包括财政可持续性、退出非常规货币政策、欧元区持久不退的低通 胀和通缩风险，需要推动结构改革提高生产率增长等。发展中国家的短期风险也有 所缓和，部分原因在于过去1年出现的下行风险没有产生大的波动，也有部分原因在 于近期的经济调整措施降低了经济的脆弱程度。在一些国家，2013年夏季以来采取的 汇率调整，利率上升及其他政策措施减少了经常账户赤字，放慢了信贷增长速度。

Developing countries continue to face various challenges. External financial conditions are expected to tighten as the recovery in high-income countries gains traction. In addition, several developing countries seem limited by the lack of capacity to sustain further growth. Sustained and strong future growth in developing countries therefore rests on domestic efforts to increase productivity and competitiveness while reducing vulnerabilities to external pressures. Such reforms are necessary if developing countries are to achieve the goals of ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity. Rising inequality in many countries is harmful to economic stability and the sustainability of growth, but well-designed policies can reduce inequality without hurting growth.

发展中国家仍然面临着各种挑战。随着高收入国家复苏恢复动力，发展中国 家的外部财务状况预计将会收紧。此外，一些发展中国家似乎没有能力继续维持进 一步的增长。因此，发展中国家要维持可持续和强劲的增长，只能依靠国内自身力 量，提高生产率和竞争力，同时提高应对外部压力的能力。如果发展中国家要实现 消除贫困和推动共同繁荣的两大目标，就要推进相关的改革。很多国家出现的日益 加剧的不平等现象也不利于经济稳定和可持续增长，但是设计良好的政策能够降低不平等现象，同时也不妨碍增长。

——摘自《世界银行报告2014》